{"id":421515,"date":"2023-05-10T18:56:45","date_gmt":"2023-05-10T16:56:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eenewseurope.com\/?p=421515"},"modified":"2023-05-11T09:22:34","modified_gmt":"2023-05-11T07:22:34","slug":"le-marche-mondial-des-puces-se-dirige-toujours-vers-une-baisse-de-20-en-2023-selon-penn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ecinews.fr\/fr\/le-marche-mondial-des-puces-se-dirige-toujours-vers-une-baisse-de-20-en-2023-selon-penn\/","title":{"rendered":"March\u00e9 mondial des puces : vers une baisse de 20% en 2023 selon Malcolm Penn"},"content":{"rendered":"

L’analyste Malcolm Penn a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement mod\u00e9r\u00e9 ses perspectives pour le march\u00e9 mondial des puces en 2023, adoucissant sa vision de la contraction la plus probable \u00e0 20 %.<\/span><\/span> Il avait pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment pr\u00e9dit une chute de 22 %.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

Cependant, Penn reste le plus baissier des pr\u00e9visionnistes et bien en dessous de la plupart des autres.<\/span><\/span> Gartner a r\u00e9cemment pr\u00e9vu que 2023 verrait le march\u00e9 chuter de 11,1 % (voir Global chip market to decline 11 percent in 2023, says Gartner<\/a>).<\/span><\/span> Lors d’une conf\u00e9rence t\u00e9l\u00e9phonique, Penn, PDG et fondateur de Future Horizons, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que ce serait impossible sans une croissance s\u00e9quentielle imm\u00e9diate au 2T23 et une croissance normale tout au long de l’ann\u00e9e.<\/span><\/span> \u00ab\u00a0Vous auriez besoin d’une croissance au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre et d’une croissance encore plus forte au troisi\u00e8me trimestre. Il n’y a tout simplement aucun signe que cela se produise\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Penn.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0La bonne nouvelle est que les exp\u00e9ditions en nombre d’unit\u00e9s sont inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 la ligne de tendance \u00e0 long terme. Cela signifie que les stocks sont en train d’\u00eatre r\u00e9duits. Le taux courant des exp\u00e9ditions de mars \u00e9tait de 6,2 milliards d’unit\u00e9s par semaine, contre un pic pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent de 8,2 milliards d’unit\u00e9s par semaine.<\/span><\/span> Entre temps, la capacit\u00e9 de production mondiale a augment\u00e9, de sorte que les fabs ne tournaient qu’\u00e0 75 % de leur capacit\u00e9 ou moins \u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Penn.<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

Il reste deux trimestres de stocks \u00e0 \u00e9couler<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

Cela fournit \u00e9galement une autre explication pour laquelle le secteur des puces ne peut pas soudainement commencer \u00e0 afficher une croissance trimestrielle s\u00e9quentielle et annuelle.<\/span><\/span> \u00ab\u00a0L’\u00e9puisement des stocks a encore besoin de deux trimestres et donc je ne vois aucune reprise avant le 4T23. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c0 l’heure actuelle, toutes les tendances du taux de croissance sont toujours n\u00e9gatives\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Penn.<\/span><\/span> En mai 2022 \u2013 et confirm\u00e9 \u00e0 nouveau en janvier 2023 \u2013 Penn avait trac\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions optimistes, moyennes et pessimistes pour la croissance du march\u00e9 des puces en 2023 \u00e0 -17, -22 et -26 % respectivement (voir Chip market growth in 2023 will be \u2018deeply negative\u2019 says analyst<\/a><\/span><\/span>).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Le premier trimestre [de 2023] \u00e9tait plus proche de notre sc\u00e9nario optimiste. Le pire sc\u00e9nario baissier de -26 % ne devrait plus se produire. Mais rien de substantiel n’a chang\u00e9.\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

Penn pr\u00e9voit maintenant que le march\u00e9 mondial des puces en 2023 se contractera de 18 \u00e0 22 %, avec une baisse de 20 % comme r\u00e9sultat le plus probable.<\/span><\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

En ce qui concerne 2024, Penn a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu’il \u00e9tait trop t\u00f4t pour dire exactement o\u00f9 dans le cycle de reprise l’ann\u00e9e atterrirait et qu’il \u00e9tait donc pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 d’estimer\u00a0 les chiffres de croissance.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"

Croissance du march\u00e9 des puces par trimestre en 2023 avec des versions hautes, basses et les plus probables. Source : Future Horizons.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Related links and articles:<\/h4>\n

www.futurehorizons.com<\/a><\/p>\n

News articles:<\/h4>\n

Global chip market to decline 11 percent in 2023, says Gartner<\/a><\/p>\n

Some market forecasters are in denial, says Future Horizons\u2019 Penn<\/a><\/p>\n

Chip market growth in 2023 will be \u2018deeply negative\u2019 says analyst<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’analyste Malcolm Penn a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement mod\u00e9r\u00e9 ses perspectives pour le march\u00e9 mondial des puces en 2023, adoucissant sa vision de la contraction la plus probable \u00e0 20 %. Il avait pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment pr\u00e9dit une chute de 22 %. Cependant, Penn reste le plus baissier des pr\u00e9visionnistes et bien en dessous de la plupart des autres. Gartner […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":338079,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[888],"tags":[2327,905,906,908,1558],"domains":[47],"ppma_author":[1153,1136],"class_list":["post-421515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-marche","tag-marche","tag-memory-data-storage-fr","tag-mpus-mcus-fr","tag-plds-fpgas-asics-fr","tag-semiconducteurs","domains-electronique-eci"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"Global chip market still headed for 20% decline in 2023, says P...<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analyst Malcolm Penn has moderated his outlook for 2023's global chip market slightly, softening his view of the contraction to 20 percent.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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