{"id":407058,"date":"2022-11-29T17:24:40","date_gmt":"2022-11-29T16:24:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eenewseurope.com\/?p=407058"},"modified":"2023-01-22T18:49:47","modified_gmt":"2023-01-22T17:49:47","slug":"future-horizons-prevoit-une-baisse-du-marche-de-22-en-2023-contre-4-selon-le-wsts-qui-a-raison","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ecinews.fr\/fr\/future-horizons-prevoit-une-baisse-du-marche-de-22-en-2023-contre-4-selon-le-wsts-qui-a-raison\/","title":{"rendered":"Future Horizons pr\u00e9voit une baisse du march\u00e9 de 22% en 2023 contre 4% selon le WSTS. Qui a raison?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Quatre analystes de march\u00e9 ont consid\u00e9rablement sous-estim\u00e9 l’ampleur de la contraction du march\u00e9 mondial des puces en 2023, selon l’analyste Malcolm Penn <\/span><\/span><\/span>de Future Horizons.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

Ces derniers jours, Gartner, IC Insights, Semiconductor Intelligence et World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) ont pr\u00e9dit que le march\u00e9 mondial des puces se contracterait en 2023 de 3,5, 5,0, 6,0 et 4,1 %, respectivement. Ces quatre analystes s’accordent sur la raison pour laquelle le march\u00e9 devrait se contracter, mais quantitativement, elles sont tr\u00e8s \u00e9loign\u00e9es de la propre analyse de Penn, qui pr\u00e9voit que 2023 verra une contraction du march\u00e9 de 22 % (voir <\/span><\/span><\/span>Le crash du march\u00e9 des puces est l\u00e0 et c\u2019est pire que pr\u00e9vu\u2026<\/a>).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Penn a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que les l\u00e9g\u00e8res baisses pr\u00e9dites par d’autres analystes du march\u00e9 semblent ignorer la profonde cyclicit\u00e9 de l’industrie des semiconducteurs et la fa\u00e7on dont elle est d\u00e9sormais \u00e9troitement li\u00e9e aux tendances macro\u00e9conomiques. \u00ab\u00a0Je vois cela comme une r\u00e9p\u00e9tition de la reprise. Ils pr\u00e9voyaient une croissance annuelle en pourcentage \u00e0 un chiffre alors que j’\u00e9tais \u00e0 20% et j’ai eu raison.\u00a0\u00bb Selon WSTS, la valeur du march\u00e9 mondial des puces a augment\u00e9 pour atteindre 555,9 milliards de dollars am\u00e9ricains en 2021, en hausse de 26,2 % par rapport \u00e0 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0Ils ne veulent pas faire de vagues et semblent sortir leurs pr\u00e9visions sur la pointe des pieds. Bien s\u00fbr, il est possible de se rapprocher du bon chiffre si vous alimentez le march\u00e9 au goutte \u00e0 goutte avec des chiffres trois ou quatre fois par an, \u00a0\u00bb a ajout\u00e9 Penn. Bon nombre des pr\u00e9visionnistes qui ont publi\u00e9 leurs r\u00e9centes r\u00e9visions \u00e0 la baisse reconnaissent que les d\u00e9penses grand-public en smartphones et autres appareils \u00e9lectroniques ont chut\u00e9 en raison de l’inflation et d’autres pressions \u00e9conomiques. Mais ils semblent \u00e9galement indiquer que l’automobile, l’industrie, les infrastructures de communication et d’autres march\u00e9s ax\u00e9s sur les entreprises resteront raisonnablement robustes en 2023. C’est quelque chose que Penn conteste.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0L’automobile est un march\u00e9 aui est peut-\u00eatre encore fort aujourd’hui, mais c’est parce qu’il y avait un retard ( de production d\u00fb aux p\u00e9nuries), mais ce march\u00e9 finira \u00e9galement par souffrir, tout comme l’\u00e9lectronique industrielle et d’autres\u00a0\u00bb, a-t-il d\u00e9clar\u00e9. Les analystes qui ne reconnaissent pas cela sont en d\u00e9ni de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Penn. \u00ab\u00a0Une voiture est toujours un achat discr\u00e9tionnaire et cet achat sera report\u00e9 lorsque les gens seront aux prises avec le co\u00fbt de l’\u00e9nergie et de la nourriture\u00a0\u00bb, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 Penn.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/span><\/span>Les march\u00e9s automobiles gagnent de l\u2019importance pour l\u2019industrie des semiconducteurs<\/a><\/p>\n

Sur le front industriel, Penn a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que les gels d’embauche et les suppressions d’emplois venaient juste de commencer et que ceux-ci auront \u00e9galement leur effet sur la r\u00e9duction de la demande dans l’\u00e9lectronique et le ralentissement des diverses \u00e9conomies r\u00e9gionales. Pendant ce temps, les sanctions am\u00e9ricano-chinoises et la politique z\u00e9ro covid de la Chine ont fait reculer cette \u00e9conomie massive. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Lorsque tout est pris en compte, cela conduit Penn \u00e0 croire que la r\u00e9cession imminente des semiconducteurs pourrait \u00eatre l’une des plus profondes que le secteur ait endur\u00e9es au cours de son histoire plut\u00f4t qu’une baisse l\u00e9g\u00e8re. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Penn a d\u00e9clar\u00e9: \u00ab\u00a0Le probl\u00e8me est que nous n’avons pas v\u00e9cu ce genre de situation depuis 20 ans ou plus. Beaucoup de jeunes dans l’industrie pensent que c’est diff\u00e9rent cette fois-ci. Ce n’est pas le cas.\u00a0\u00bb<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Les r\u00e9sultats financiers montrent la faiblesse du march\u00e9 des semiconducteurs<\/a><\/p>\n

On the industrial front Penn said that hiring freezes and job cuts had just started to come in and these will also have their effect on reducing demand for electronics and slowing the various regional economies. Meanwhile US-China sanctions and China’s zero-covid policy has been driving that massive economy into reverse.<\/p>\n

Autres articles et liens:<\/h4>\n

www.futurehorizons.com<\/a><\/p>\n

News articles:<\/h4>\n

WSTS lowers chip market forecast for 2022, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n

Global chip market to fall 5% in 2023, says IC Insight<\/a><\/p>\n

Gartner remains bullish on 2023 chip market prospects<\/a><\/p>\n

Global chip market contraction of 6% in 2023, says analyst<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Future Horizons pr\u00e9voit une baisse du march\u00e9 de 22% en 2023 contre 4% selon le WSTS, qui a raison?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":132851,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[880],"tags":[2327,2326],"domains":[47],"ppma_author":[1153,1136],"class_list":["post-407058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites-economiques","tag-marche","tag-semiceonducteurs","domains-electronique-eci"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"Baisse dumarch\u00e9 de 22% en 2023 ou 4 % selon WSTS ...<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Malcolm Penn de Future Horizons pr\u00e9voit une baisse du march\u00e9 de 22% en 2023 contre 4% selon le WSTS, qui a raison?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecinews.fr\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/407058\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Future Horizons pr\u00e9voit une baisse du march\u00e9 de 22% en 2023 contre 4% selon le WSTS. 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